Trend following · Beginner · Weekly check
50-Day WMA Dominance
How it works, and when it doesn't.
The WMA reacts faster than SMA to recent price breaks — fewer false signals on the exit but faster re-entry when trends resume.
WMA50 > WMA200, slope=-0.00084, vol=0.74, RF=65%. Conditions not met.
Why it works
Weighted moving averages give more weight to recent prices, making them more responsive than a simple average. When price stays above its 50-day WMA, it indicates sustained buying pressure with recency emphasis.
The signal logic
- Compute 50-day linearly-weighted moving average of Close price
- Long when Close > WMA(50) — price momentum above recent weighted average
- Cash otherwise — no short selling
When it fails
Volatile but trendless markets where price oscillates around the WMA without committing either direction.
- Best market
- Smooth trending markets, SPY in steady bull regime
- Worst market
- High-volatility whipsaw environments
Backtest
| Sharpe ratio | 0.13 |
| Annual return | 0.8% |
| Worst drawdown | -19.1% |
| Trades in the backtest | 36 |
Backtest on daily bars, positions taken the bar after the signal (no look-ahead).
50-Day WMA Dominance, live.
Re-scored after every close.
The platform runs this and 32 other strategies against the live tape each day — with the evidence behind every number.