Trend following · issue of Sep 5, 2026 · A few trades a year
The Turtle Breakout on Bitcoin
20-day breakout with a trailing ATR stop.
Right less than half the time; the winners are about four times the size of the losers.
In cash, waiting for a 20-day breakout
Re-read when each daily candle closes, 00:00 UTC.
Exact positions, live levels and the robustness checks for this issue are on the Analyst plan. The stance above and the full record are open to everyone.
Levels
3 price levels where this rule would act are on the Analyst plan.
Track record
| Last 5 years | Since 2015 | Buy & hold Bitcoin, since 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | 9.6% | 55.6% | 58.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.46 | 1.33 | 1.03 |
| Worst drawdown | -42.9% | -55.3% | -83.4% |
A backtest with the issue's own costs, extended to the last close. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Stance history
In the market 45 of the last 90 sessions, returning +3.0% across them. Last change Oct 9, 2026: Long → Flat.
Research Lab
Written down before the results existed: Every 30 days after the issue returns between -11.3% and +38.2%: the range of 90% of the 4,237 such stretches in the backtest up to Sep 5, 2026.
| Window | Return | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Check 1 | Sep 6, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026 | -6.2% | Inside the range |
| Check 2 | Oct 6, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026 | -4.8% | Inside the range |
Check 3 is running: 7 of 30 days in, judged on Dec 4, 2026.
Standing check: the deepest fall since the issue is -11.2%, against a worst of -55.3% in the backtest — within it.
Checked by the program when each window completes and sealed into the record. Misses stay public; the record counts both ways.
The issue's numbers, reproduced
Every figure the issue printed, recomputed on the same window from the platform's own price history.
| Figure | In the issue | Recomputed | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | 54.1% | 58.2% | matches |
| Sharpe | 1.28 | 1.36 | matches |
| Worst drawdown | -57.6% | -55.3% | matches |
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