Volatility · issue of Oct 9, 2026 · Monthly
The 'Do Less' Strategy
Hold less stock when markets get wild.
About the index's return with far smaller crashes. A risk tool, not a return booster.
Hold 100% SPY this month
Sets next month's SPY weight.
Exact positions, live levels and the robustness checks for this issue are on the Analyst plan. The stance above and the full record are open to everyone.
Track record
| Last 5 years | Since 1994 | Buy & hold SPY, since 1994 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | 11.4% | 9.7% | 10.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| Worst drawdown | -16.3% | -36.2% | -55.2% |
A backtest with the issue's own costs, extended to the last close. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Stance history
In the market 63 of the last 63 sessions, returning -1.9% across them. No change of stance in the window.
Research Lab
Written down before the results existed: Every 21 sessions after the issue returns between -5.2% and +5.4%: the range of 90% of the 8,207 such stretches in the backtest up to Oct 9, 2026.
| Window | Return | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Check 1 | Oct 12, 2026 – Nov 9, 2026 | -3.3% | Inside the range |
Check 2 is running: 2 of 21 sessions in, judged on Dec 9, 2026.
Standing check: the deepest fall since the issue is -5.8%, against a worst of -36.2% in the backtest — within it.
Checked by the program when each window completes and sealed into the record. Misses stay public; the record counts both ways.
The issue's numbers, reproduced
Every figure the issue printed, recomputed on the same window from the platform's own price history.
| Figure | In the issue | Recomputed | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe (no leverage), above T-bills | 0.59 | 0.58 | matches |
| Worst drawdown | -36.2% | -36.2% | matches |
| Annual return | 9.8% | 9.8% | matches |
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