Trend following · issue of Oct 29, 2026 · Daily, 00:00 UTC
Catching Crypto Trends
Nine breakout models, one position.
Cut Bitcoin's worst drawdown from −83% to about −20%; flat since the paper's data ended.
1 of 9 trend models are long Bitcoin
Re-read when each daily candle closes, 00:00 UTC.
Exact positions, live levels and the robustness checks for this issue are on the Analyst plan. The stance above and the full record are open to everyone.
Track record
| Last 5 years | Since 2015 | Buy & hold Bitcoin, since 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | 5.6% | 25.7% | 67.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.48 | 1.49 | 1.12 |
| Worst drawdown | -16.2% | -19.7% | -83.4% |
A backtest with the issue's own costs, extended to the last close. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Stance history
In the market 86 of the last 90 sessions, returning +2.5% across them. Last change Aug 18, 2026: Flat → Partly in.
Research Lab
Written down before the results existed: Every 30 days after the issue returns between -4.0% and +16.3%: the range of 90% of the 4,036 such stretches in the backtest up to Oct 29, 2026.
No window has completed since the issue went out yet.
Check 1 is running: 13 of 30 days in, judged on Nov 28, 2026.
Standing check: the deepest fall since the issue is -1.5%, against a worst of -19.7% in the backtest — within it.
Checked by the program when each window completes and sealed into the record. Misses stay public; the record counts both ways.
The issue's numbers, reproduced
Every figure the issue printed, recomputed on the same window from the platform's own price history.
| Figure | In the issue | Recomputed | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Sharpe, after 0.10% fees | 1.45 | 1.46 | matches |
| Bitcoin worst drawdown | -20.0% | -19.7% | matches |
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